Syria. Al-Jolani’s Advance on Damascus: A New Front of Unease for Iran, Russia, and Israel.
by Claudio Bertolotti.
From the interview by Francesco De Leo on Radio Radicale – Spazio Transnazionale (episode of December 7, 2024).
Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, born Ahmed Al Sharaa, is the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an armed group active in the Syrian civil war and still designated by the United States as a terrorist organization. Originally affiliated with Al Qaeda and known as the head of Jabhat Al Nusra, Jolani started out as a radical jihadist sent to Syria in 2011 with funding and support from Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi—who would later become the world’s most wanted terrorist—to establish Al Qaeda’s Syrian branch.
Over the years, he has transformed both his image and his strategy. At first, he announced a formal break from Al Qaeda, then focused primarily on toppling Bashar al-Assad’s regime and controlling key areas such as Idlib Province. This “break” was widely viewed as a tactical move aimed at avoiding direct international attacks against transnational jihadist formations.
At the same time, Jolani also changed his appearance and public rhetoric. He traded in his camouflage fatigues for a blazer and Western-style shirt, presenting himself as a moderate Syrian revolutionary fighting the Damascus regime rather than waging a global war against the West. In recent interviews, he has minimized references to global jihad, instead emphasizing Syria’s “liberation” and the role of HTS as a local force committed to ensuring security and governance for millions of people living under its control.
Despite this rebranding strategy and his attempt to appear as a more pragmatic interlocutor, Jolani remains an extremely controversial figure, undoubtedly tied to insurgent jihadism and one of its foremost leaders today. He has a past deeply rooted in international jihadist networks and currently leads an organization still considered terrorist by Washington. His trajectory is that of a leader seeking to distance himself from transnational extremism in order to gain local and possibly international legitimacy, positioning himself as a revolutionary political actor rather than a jihadist leader.
The Situation on the Ground
Syrian rebels are advancing toward Damascus with Turkish support and are besieging Homs, a strategic hub en route to the Mediterranean and a regime stronghold.
While Russia, Turkey, and Iran are set to meet in Doha to negotiate a possible political transition excluding Assad, on the ground pro-Iranian forces seem to be retreating, and Russia appears weakened and no longer proactive, as the UN reports a massive wave of displaced people.
Rebel leader al-Jolani claims the right to use any means against the regime but promises not to persecute minorities. We shall see.
Meanwhile, a pleased Erdogan openly announces Damascus as his next objective, while Iran, Syria, and Iraq declare their unity against “terrorism.”
In the country’s south, anti-government groups are moving north, easily taking positions abandoned by fleeing loyalists, and the Druze communities of Suwayda are creating a semi-autonomous region.
Meanwhile, Lebanon is closing its borders for fear of the conflict spilling over, and clashes continue between pro-Turkish forces and Kurdish militias.
Concerns for Iran and Israel
It is certain that, given the current situation, this is a problem for Iran, as well as for Russia, and also for Israel: all are watching developments with deep concern. For Moscow, it’s a major issue related to maintaining its naval mobility in the Mediterranean. For Tehran, it’s a question of the overall stability of the “Axis of Resistance” since the fall of Syria could block the vital link with Lebanon, and therefore with Hezbollah. Perhaps the Doha agreements aim to find a mediated solution that would allow Iran to maintain control over a strip of Syrian territory essential for connecting with Hezbollah.
What about Israel? Israel is very worried because the presence of a weak Syrian regime is, for it, the best-case scenario; the fall of Syria under Islamist control could open a new front of additional instability along its borders. Not to mention that “al-Jolani” takes his name from the Golan, currently occupied by Israel, and he has always held openly anti-Western and anti-Israeli positions.