The Fall of Damascus and the Crumbling of the Iranian Resistance Axis.
by Claudio Bertolotti.
Bashar al-Assad’s Syria no longer exists.
Syria, a land with a millennia-old history, is currently undergoing a moment of epochal and unforeseen upheaval. After nearly fourteen years of a bloody conflict—one woven through with international and regional interests—the longstanding dominance of the Assad family, unbroken for over half a century, now appears to be nearing its end. Bashar al Assad, who succeeded his father Hafez in 2000, is currently portrayed as a leader on the run, while the Islamist insurgents, advancing from both the north and the south, are ominously pressing at the gates of Damascus.
International reports, including those cited by outlets such as MSN and NPR, depict a scenario of rapid disintegration of the regime’s political and military apparatus. The lightning advance of the Islamist formations led by HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham), under the leadership of Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, began roughly ten days ago in Idlib near the Turkish border and has shattered what were once considered unassailable fortifications. Aleppo, Hama, and Homs—long regarded as regime strongholds and pillars of the “Resistance Axis,” an alliance uniting Syria, Iran, affiliated armed groups, and Russia—have fallen. The apparent withdrawal of Russian support has further accelerated the collapse of a system built on authoritarian control and external backing.
Meanwhile, rumors abound about Assad’s fate. Some sources already claim he is in exile, with Tehran as a potential safe haven. In the United States, speculation suggests he is no longer in the Syrian capital, and there is even talk of his possible presence in Moscow or Doha. The presidential office attempts to deny such claims, insisting that the raìs remains in Damascus, but trust in these assertions appears to have waned drastically.
As Lorenzo Trombette (ANSA) reports, Doha has become the stage for high-level diplomatic consultations. While the foreign ministers of Russia, Iran, and Turkey confer in Qatar, a Western “quartet”—the United States, France, the United Kingdom, and Germany—has met with European Union representatives and UN Special Envoy Geir Pedersen. From these meetings has emerged the intent to initiate, as early as next week in Geneva, a post-Assad political transition process. This path aims to involve figures from the Assad system who have not been directly implicated in the regime’s worst atrocities, along with some representatives of armed opposition groups, in order to prevent new bloodshed and forestall institutional collapse. The goal is to preserve the Syrian state—distinguished from the disintegrating regime—and offer the population a prospect of stability.
The prospective, albeit indirect, inclusion of figures linked to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in the Geneva talks signals an unprecedented flexibility. Although HTS has been labeled a terrorist organization by various Western powers, its mediated involvement through lesser groups associated with it appears to be a compromise aimed at forging a negotiating framework that could lead to a lasting agreement.
The sudden downfall of Assad is accompanied by the fragmentation of the Resistance Axis. Iran, a longtime supporter of the Damascus government, may now opt for a more cautious stance, focusing on its strategic interests along the coast and in territories home to ancient Shiite-Alawite clans historically loyal to the Assad family. Russia, preoccupied on multiple international fronts, seems less inclined to maintain its support, paving the way for a more uncertain scenario.
As the Islamist insurgents reach the outskirts of Damascus, the imminent collapse of the regime throws open the doors of symbolic places of repression: the notorious prisons of Adra and Saydnaya. Within these facilities, thousands of dissidents, activists, and political opponents have been detained and disappeared over the decades. Their fate, long shrouded in silence, may now be revealed, potentially marking one of the first symbolic steps of a new chapter in Syrian history.
The entire Middle East is feeling the repercussions of this upheaval. Assad’s fall affects not only Syria’s borders but also has implications for Lebanon, Iraq, and even relations between Israel and Iran. In a context where sectarian, ethnic, and political tensions have never been fully resolved, the region will be forced to reassess its balance of power. The international community, through its gatherings from Doha to Geneva, must now tackle a crucial challenge: managing a transfer of power that, from a secular dictatorial regime, may yield to an Islamist surge capable of reigniting jihadist violence.
In short, Syria risks becoming another Afghanistan: similar dynamics, worrisome prospects linked to international jihadism that, originating in Syria, could threaten the region and the West. What is even more concerning is the role Turkey might play, having supported the regime’s downfall through direct assistance to the Islamists of HTS—an organization whose roots trace back to al-Qaida and ISIS—and how it may now seek to leverage its influence in the Middle East and North Africa.