The Perils of a War Between Israel and Jordan
by Andrea Molle.
A war between Israel and Jordan remains an unlikely but potentially catastrophic scenario. Since signing a peace treaty in 1994, the two countries have maintained diplomatic and security cooperation, making armed conflict seem improbable. However, the Middle East is a region where tensions can escalate unexpectedly, and in the event of war, the consequences would be far-reaching, extending beyond the immediate battlefield and reshaping regional and global dynamics.
Militarily, Israel holds an overwhelming advantage. Its state-of-the-art air force, advanced missile defense systems, and cyber warfare capabilities make it one of the most formidable militaries in the world. Jordan’s military, while professional and well-trained, lacks the offensive power and technological sophistication to sustain a prolonged war against Israel. While Jordan’s mountainous terrain could offer some defensive advantages, its key cities and infrastructure would be vulnerable to Israeli airstrikes.
Conversely, Israeli population centers such as Tel Aviv and Jerusalem would be within range of Jordanian missiles, but Israel’s Iron Dome and other missile defense systems would likely neutralize most of these threats. If war were to break out under a U.S. administration led by Donald Trump, the geopolitical landscape would shift dramatically. Trump has a history of unwavering support for Israel, having moved the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem and recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights during his first term. In the event of conflict, Washington would likely side decisively with Israel, providing military assistance, blocking diplomatic efforts to restrain Israeli actions, and exerting pressure on Jordan to de-escalate.
This approach could embolden Israeli leadership, reducing the incentive for a swift resolution and increasing the likelihood of a drawn-out conflict. At the same time, such a stance would further alienate Arab allies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who would face the difficult choice of supporting Jordan diplomatically while maintaining their fragile ties with Israel. The economic consequences of such a war would be devastating. Jordan, already reliant on foreign aid and economic cooperation with Israel, would suffer greatly, facing trade disruptions, infrastructure destruction, and economic collapse. While Israel has a more resilient economy, a prolonged war would still create market instability, harm the tourism industry, and disrupt vital sectors such as technology and defense.
A broader escalation could also lead to rising oil prices and regional economic turmoil, further complicating global markets. Beyond conventional military and economic consequences, one of the most dangerous ripple effects of such a conflict would be the resurgence of international terrorism. History has shown that war and instability in the Middle East create fertile ground for jihadist organizations, and a war between Israel and Jordan would likely open the door for extremist groups to exploit the chaos. ISIS-K, an already growing threat, could seize the moment to expand its influence, launching attacks in both Israel and Jordan while using the war as a recruitment tool. The instability could also encourage terrorist attacks in Western nations, as radicalized individuals respond to the conflict with violence abroad. The specter of a global wave of terrorism, fueled by the war, could reshape security policies worldwide and force governments to divert resources toward counterterrorism efforts. The possible outcomes of such a conflict vary in severity. A short, intense war could lead to a quick diplomatic resolution, with the United States or regional powers stepping in to mediate a ceasefire.
However, if the war dragged on and external actors such as Iran, Hezbollah, and Palestinian militant groups became involved, the situation could spiral into a broader regional conflict. Jordan itself could face internal instability, with the monarchy weakened by war and at risk of an uprising or coup. In the worst-case scenario, the war could trigger a new era of instability, empowering extremist groups and reshaping alliances across the region. Ultimately, a war between Israel and Jordan would be disastrous for both countries and the broader Middle East. The strategic, economic, and security costs far outweigh any potential gains, making a full-scale conflict unlikely.
However, as history has shown, political miscalculations, external provocations, or shifting alliances can sometimes push nations toward unintended wars. While outright conflict remains improbable, the risks of border tensions, proxy confrontations, and diplomatic crises should not be underestimated. The only real solution is continued dialogue and diplomatic engagement, as the alternative—a war with unpredictable and devastating consequences—would be a tragedy for the entire region.
