The Philippines: A Geopolitical Linchpin in the Indo-Pacific and Italy’s Strategic Opportunity

by Andrea Molle.

The Philippines, long considered a crucial geopolitical player in Southeast Asia, has increasingly found itself at the center of the escalating competition between the United States and China. As Beijing’s “eleven-dash line” advances the country’s assertive foreign policy in the South China Sea and beyond, and Washington intensifies its Indo-Pacific strategy, Manila is playing an outsized role in shaping regional security dynamics.

For Italy, which has traditionally focused its foreign policy on Europe, Africa, and the Mediterranean, the evolving Indo-Pacific landscape presents an opportunity to redefine its global engagement via a more deliberate military and civilian presence in the Philippines archipelago. The Philippines’ strategic location at the crossroads of the Pacific and South China Sea makes it an invaluable ally for both regional and global powers. Situated on key maritime trade routes, it serves as a gateway between the Pacific and the economic heartlands of East Asia. More importantly, the archipelago provides crucial logistical and military advantages, particularly in countering China’s aggressive territorial expansion in disputed waters and the threat to Taiwan.

Beijing’s expansive claims over the South China Sea, including its militarization of artificial islands and the interruption of several fishing routes, have directly challenged Philippine sovereignty. Despite an international tribunal ruling in 2016 that invalidated China’s claims, Beijing continues to push its interests aggressively. In response, Manila has sought to reinforce its defense ties with Washington, reopening strategic bases to U.S. forces and deepening its security cooperation with regional partners such as Japan and Australia.  The Philippines has actively participated in a series of international naval drills with countries including the United States, Australia, Japan, and France. These exercises, conducted within the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone, aim to enhance defense coordination and interoperability. China has expressed objections to these activities, viewing them as destabilizing. Manila also signed a defense agreement with Canada to bolster joint military exercises.

This move aligns with the Philippines’ strategy to strengthen defense partnerships amid rising tensions in the South China Sea. At the same time, the Philippines faces a delicate balancing act. While it values U.S. security guarantees, its economic interdependence with China complicates the equation. Beijing remains a key trade partner, a major source of investment, and an influential actor in the region’s economic architecture. This tension between security and economic interests highlights the broader struggle many Southeast Asian nations face in navigating the U.S.-China rivalry. While the Philippines is enhancing its defense collaborations with the U.S. and other allies, it continues to engage diplomatically with China. For instance, during a recent meeting with Cambodia’s Prime Minister Hun Manet, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. expressed gratitude for Cambodia’s pardon of 13 Filipino women, highlighting the Philippines’ efforts to maintain positive relations within the region. Washington’s renewed focus on the Indo-Pacific, particularly through initiatives like AUKUS, the Quad, and enhanced security cooperation with ASEAN countries, aims to counterbalance China’s rising influence.

For the United States, the Philippines represents a critical anchor in its regional security framework. The Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) between Manila and Washington facilitates American access to key military installations, ensuring a forward presence that can deter Chinese encroachments and enhance maritime security. Additionally, the growing U.S. military footprint in the region serves as a deterrent against any potential escalation in Taiwan—a key flashpoint in U.S.-China tensions. The Philippines’ proximity to Taiwan makes it a vital logistical hub should conflict arise, further solidifying its importance in Washington’s strategic calculus.

But what about Italy? Italy, as a key European power, has traditionally maintained a limited presence in the Indo-Pacific. However, given the increasing global significance of the region and the close ties currently defining its relationship with Washington, Rome should reassess its strategic engagement. However, while France and the UK have already enhanced their naval and economic involvement in the Indo-Pacific, Italy has yet to fully articulate its role. Italy’s economic interests align with a stable and rules-based Indo-Pacific. The region is a critical market for Italian exports, including defense technology, maritime equipment, and infrastructure development. Strengthening economic and security ties with the Philippines could provide a strategic gateway for broader engagement in ASEAN, where Italy holds observer status. On the security front, Italy could enhance naval cooperation with the Philippines by participating in joint maritime exercises, providing coast guard training, and supporting regional efforts to maintain freedom of navigation. Italy’s advanced defense industry could also contribute to modernizing the Philippines’ military capabilities.

Diplomatically, Italy should leverage its EU partnerships to push for a more coherent European Indo-Pacific strategy, ensuring that Europe remains a relevant player in the region’s geopolitical balance. Supporting ASEAN-led security mechanisms and advocating for adherence to international law, particularly the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), would further cement Italy’s role as a constructive actor. In conclusion, the Philippines’ geopolitical significance in the Indo-Pacific is undeniable. As the U.S. pivots to counterbalance China’s growing assertiveness, Manila finds itself at the heart of a strategic competition that will shape the future of global order. For Italy, engaging more proactively in the Indo-Pacific—particularly through stronger ties with the Philippines—represents an opportunity to diversify its foreign policy and assert itself as a relevant player in one of the world’s most dynamic regions. By deepening economic, security, and diplomatic ties, Italy can contribute to a more stable and rules-based Indo-Pacific while expanding its own strategic footprint in an increasingly multipolar world.